Toronto’s largest law firms hired seven fewer summer students than last year, falling from 283 to 276, according to the final results from Precedent’s 2014 Summer Job Watch.

This is the second year in a row summer job numbers are down, but the decline is slowing — last year’s chart shows that firms dropped 33 student jobs in 2013.

As in previous years, results fluctuate from firm to firm. Both Blakes and BLG, for instance, added eight students, returning to their historical average after big drops last year. Meanwhile, the number of students hired at Heenan Blaikie, McMillan and Torys each fell by more than 25 percent.

Based on statistics alone, if a firm reports a large decline in summer hiring, this might suggest that articling opportunities are also down at that firm.

Traditionally, large firms hire as many summer students as they will need articling students, says Robyn Marttila, director of the career and professional development office at Western Law. She says this system spares them the expense of going through two major recruitments each year.

As a result, summer job numbers can be a strong indicator of how many articling students a firm intends to hire.

But this is not always the case, says Leigh-Ann McGowan, assistant director of professional development and student programs at Cassels. “Many of the firms on [the Summer Job Watch] might consider hiring additional articling students, especially those that have significantly reduced numbers from last year or historical trends.”

She says the Summer Job Watch is important, but only half the story. “I think we’ll get a better sense of how things shake out during the articling recruit.”

Another issue to watch for in the future is the slight increase in the number of firms hiring first-year students over the last several years.

Cassels, for instance, began hiring first years four years ago, and last year, BLG also started hiring first years. At least six firms of Toronto’s largest firms will hire first-year students next summer.

“We wanted to see if we were missing out on interesting, dynamic candidates that would otherwise be snapped up by other firms during the first-year process,” explains McGowan. The process has been successful, she says, noting that Cassels’s initial group of first-year students is now articling at the firm.

If more firms start to think like Cassels, that could trigger a domino effect, says Marttila. “If firms see that a lot of the top talent is being snapped up and they feel the pool is a bit diluted, then I think they will jump in for that 1L hire, but that remains to be seen.”

Students should not worry if they fail to secure a first-year summer job, says Kari Abrams, student programs director at Blakes, which hires between five and eight first-year students each year — in comparison, the firm hired 37 second-year students for 2014. “My advice to students is not to fret if they don’t get a first-year job because there are a lot more opportunities in second year.”